The plan can be found at the following website: https://www.usbr.gov/dcp/droa.html. Click for . " 9`SADP zg Ab``#@ 7 3 8_9dyB`n`` +30|@,6a # Precipitation declines combined with booming urban populations will present a significant challenge to Western water managers in the near future. Were going to be generating less than we have in quite some time. Learn more at, Photos: Heron Lake, New Mexico, August 2022, Data viz: Elephant Butte Reservoir levels, to increase the volume, depth and power of journalism, https://www.watereducationcolorado.org/fresh-water-news/, www.watereducationcolorado.org/fresh-water-news/. Prepared by Ashley Nielson NOAA, National Weather Service Colorado Basin River Forecast Center Salt Lake City, Utah www.cbrfc.noaa.gov Contents These projections are critical for planning for an increasingly dry future in the Colorado River Basin, but a new paper from Utah State University says the model may still underestimate the risk. Sunlight brightens plateaus and southeast-facing slopes, casting shadows on the northern and western faces of the rugged landscape. In July 2021, water levels on the lake fell to the lowest point since 1969 and have continued dropping. google_ad_width = 160; These instantaneous release adjustments stabilize the electrical generation and transmission system and translate to a range of about 1,300 cfs above or below the hourly scheduled release rate. By May 1, the spring-summer runoff outcomes are pretty well locked in, which means theres virtually no escape from a third poor runoff year in a row, Jeff Lukas, an independent water and climate researcher based in Lafayette, said in an email. endstream endobj startxref SW Satellite Weather endstream endobj 160 0 obj <>/Metadata 41 0 R/Pages 157 0 R/StructTreeRoot 59 0 R/Type/Catalog/ViewerPreferences 177 0 R>> endobj 161 0 obj <>/MediaBox[0 0 792 612]/Parent 157 0 R/Resources<>/Font<>/ProcSet[/PDF/Text/ImageB/ImageC/ImageI]/XObject<>>>/Rotate 0/StructParents 0/Tabs/S/Type/Page>> endobj 162 0 obj <>stream The declines were first apparent in the side canyons feeding the reservoir which thinned and then shortened. Mitchell declined to discuss the pending drought operations plan. google_ad_type = "text_image"; The model is based on weather conditions over a thirty-year span. Everyone Practices Cancel Culture | Opinion, Deplatforming Free Speech is Dangerous | Opinion. Her work has appeared nationally on NPR and been featured on Science Friday. An acre-foot is the amount of water needed to fill one acre of land to a height of one foot. System emergencies occur fairly infrequently and typically require small responses from Glen Canyon Dam. It will be among the lowest years of generation ever, said Nick Williams, power manager for the U.S. Bureau of Reclamations Upper Colorado River Region in an interview last week. Even in low emission climate scenarios (forecasts that are based on the assumption that future carbon dioxide emissions will increase relatively slowly), models predict precipitation may decline by 20-25 percent over most of California, southern Nevada, and Arizona by the end of this century. DATE MEASURED ELEVATION CHANGE CONTENT INFLOW OUTFLOW HIGH TEMP LOW TEMP WATER TEMP . Water supply forecasts take into consideration present hydrometeorological conditions and use However, these responses can have a noticeable impact on the river downstream of Glen Canyon Dam. The January 2023 24-Month Study probable maximum and the February 2023 24-Month Study probable minimum inflow scenarios were used to determine the range of probable outcomes. Across most of the streams and rivers of the Upper Basin, forecasted runoff ranges from very poor (50% of average) to mediocre (80% of average).. This is the big warning bell.. google_color_border = "FFFFFF"; That spring runoff is critical to irrigated agriculture, domestic water supplies, and the recreation industry in Colorado and the West. The northwestern side branch of Lake Powell remained cut off from the rest of the reservoir. %%EOF GCC is the official nonprofit partner of Glen Canyon National Recreation Area & Rainbow Bridge National Monument. As of Tuesday, February 28th, 2023 where elevation was 3521.04', Copyright Summit Technologies, Inc.1999 - 2023Site Views Today: 0Page Views Today: 0, The 28 tracked reservoirs above Lake Powell are currently at 58.69% of capacity. Additionally, there are possible inflow scenarios that would result in reservoir elevations falling outside the ranges indicated in these reports. This includes directly interviewing sources and research / analysis of primary source documents. (2019-2021) AND my own personal prediction of 2022 based on p. Under system normal conditions, fluctuations for regulation are typically short lived and generally balance out over the hour with minimal or no noticeable impacts on downstream river flow conditions. Wednesday snow and wind will be heavy at times leading to difficult if not impossible travel. To view the most current monthly release projections, click on: Lake Powell Release Projections. Using the approach described in the immediately preceding paragraph, the August 2022 24-Month Study projected the January 1, 2023, Lake Powell elevation to be less than 3,525 feet. It took decades for Lake Powell to reach catastrophically low levels, and according to one expert . //2006-10-04: news "I would be reluctant to limit it to years just since 2000, because I think there is some value in acknowledging the variability that goes on in our basin," he says. While the lake was significantly higher in 2011 and 2012 than in 2005, a careful comparison of the side canyons reveals that the level was still not back to 1999 levels, when the lake was near full capacity. In the image acquired on May 1, 2004, the reservoirs northwestern branch is isolated from the main reservoir; the shallow water upstream could not crest raised areas in the lakebed. By Leia Larsen. On April 8, Reclamation announced it would likely keep more water in Lake Powell, reducing releases from the planned 7.5 million acre-feet to 7 million acre-feet, a move that could trigger emergency water cutbacks in Arizona, California and Nevada. Late last fall WAPA, which operates the electric grid and distributes the power to utilities, raised rates 30% to cover reductions in power revenue. About 40 million people rely on the Colorado River for domestic use and farmers and ranchers use water from the river to irrigate more than 3 million acres of farmland. Our editorial policy and donor list can be viewed atwateredco.org. But the declining water already has drained some of the fun, he said. google_ad_channel ="2397569894"; But in a statement, she said, The Upper Basin States are working collaboratively with the Bureau of Reclamation to draft a 2022 Drought Response Operations Plan outlining potential releases from Upper Basin reservoirs in an effort to protect critical elevations at Lake Powell. The drop in the power forecast comes as Upper Colorado River Basin states of Colorado, New Mexico, Utah and Wyoming prepare to finalize a new drought operations plan for the giant river system. Though the 2022 forecast isnt expected to be finalized until later this month, water officials expect that more water will have to be released from Upper Basin storage reservoirs this summer because inflows into the lake from the drought-stressed Colorado River are expected to be well below average again, in the 60% to 80% range. 15 Day Weather Forecast SW Satellite Weather SW Water Vapor Lake Powell is down 6.18 feet from one year ago. Changes in the northeastern reaches of Lake Powell are documented in this series of natural-color images taken by the Landsat series of satellites between 1999 and 2021. Lake Powell has several launch ramps along its 186-mile length. Some Arizona cities have implemented drought management plans to conserve water, but the area continues to use water at a rate that negates Lake Powell's recovery. The probable maximum inflow scenario reflects a wet hydrologic condition which statistically would be exceeded 10 percent of the time. google_ad_channel ="2397569894"; water-data.com Lake Powell Water Database. Jerd Smith is editor of Fresh Water News. We maintain a strict editorial firewall between our funders and our journalism. 2018 brought some relief after a wet winter. She grew up in Tucson, Arizona, where she fell in love with the ecology and geology of the Sonoran desert. Both Moser and Lukas said that dry soil moisture conditions across the Colorado River Basin, which can sponge off valuable runoff before the water makes it into rivers and streams, wont be quite as bad as last year but will still be a negative factor. Water levels in Lake Powell dropped to a new record low on Tuesday. Fresh Water News is an independent, non-partisan news initiative of Water Education Colorado. 04:18 . The 30-year average was updated in October 2022 from 1981 through 2010 to 1991 through 2020. %PDF-1.7 % As the forecast season progresses, Combined with water withdrawals that many believe are not sustainable, the drought has caused a dramatic drop in Lake Powells water level. We are 41% through the Water Year. Antelope Point Marina on Feb. 3, 2022, in the Glen Canyon National Recreation Area near Page. (Hugh Carey, The Colorado Sun), How Denver is spending the $41M from the Broncos sale, (720) 263-2338 Call, text, Signal or WhatsApp, Proudly powered by Newspack by Automattic. "Its always good to plan for the worst, right? Note that projections of elevation and storage for water year 2023 have significant uncertainty at this point in the season. The last couple months have steadied out a little bit, Cody Moser, a senior hydrologist with NOAA forecast center, said during a recent web briefing to review the most recent report. What's the weather forecast for 2050? The end of January elevation and storage of Lake Powell were 3,523.45 feet (177 feet from full pool) and 5.45 million acre-feet (maf) (23 percent of live capacity), respectively. Another 480 kaf will be left in Lake Powell by reducing Glen Canyon Dams annual release volume from 7.48 maf to 7.0 maf, as outlined in the 2007 Interim Guidelines that control operations of Glen Canyon Dam and Hoover Dam. Under a Drought Contingency Plan adopted in 2019, approximately 500 thousand acre-feet (kaf) of water will come from Flaming Gorge Reservoir, located approximately 455 river miles upstream of Lake Powell. Click below for water level and accessibity updates about the launch ramps and services near you. The lake held just 30 percent of its capacity. She reported that, as of March 16, 2022, Lake Powell was at an elevation of 3,524.83 feet (ft.) with storage of 5.916 million acre-feet (maf) or 24 percent of capacity. We have to take a strong look at what we will do in the unlikely event that Lake Powell stops producing hydropower, said WAPAs Meiman. A Colorado River flows drop and tensions rise, water interests struggle Can the Ancient Humpback Chub Hang On in Todays Grand Canyon? The final NOAA forecast for the season predicts the amount of water to reach Lake Powell this year to be about 60% of average. Lake Powell Water Level including historical chart. Feet above sea level Change - Feet difference over previous . He began his journalism career in New Hampshire, then moved West and became a reporter at the Lafayette News. Projections of end of water year 2023 elevation using the February minimum and January maximum inflow forecast results are 3,544.04 feet and 3,582.24 feet, respectively. In the main body of Lake Powell, water pooled along its eastern edge, while large expanses of dry canyon floor were visible in the west. The modeling approach for WY 2023 will apply to 2024. The elevations listed in the August 2022 24-Month Study report reflected the projected physical elevations at each reservoir after implementing operations as described for water year 2023 tier determination purposes. The Colorado River flows in from the east around Mille Crag Bend and is swallowed by the lake. According to Reclamation, there is a 27% chance that Powell will still stop generating electricity completely over the next four years. The NOAA forecast center begins releasing monthly water supply forecasts for the Colorado River Basin in December. Lake Powells water levels plummeted in early 2005, according to the U.S. Department of the Interior Bureau of Reclamation. We are 37% through the Water Year. Depending on the severity of the system emergency, the response from Glen Canyon Dam can be significant, within the full range of the operating capacity of the power plant for as long as is necessary to maintain balance in the transmission system. View our Current Membership Thank You Gifts, KNAU News Talk - Arizona Public Radio | The lake is set to reach. a greater portion of the future hydrologic and climatic uncertainty becomes known and So, it takes awhile to fill and it takes awhile to empty.". The Glen Canyon Dam annual release has initially been set to 7.00 maf, and in April 2023 Reclamation will evaluate hydrologic conditions to determine if balancing releases may be appropriate under the conditions established in the 2007 Interim Guidelines; Balancing releases will be limited (with a minimum of 7.00 maf) to protect Lake Powell from declining below elevation 3,525 feet at the end of December 2023; Balancing releases will take into account operational neutrality of the 0.480 maf that was retained in Lake Powell under the. This article contains new, firsthand information uncovered by its reporter(s). Upper Colorado River Basin regularly experiences significant year to year hydrologic variability. Join half a million readers enjoying Newsweek's free newsletters. and last updated 5:24 PM, Sep 24, 2021. 175 0 obj <>/Filter/FlateDecode/ID[<68753438768B134985CC80C922059B30>]/Index[159 34]/Info 158 0 R/Length 84/Prev 199590/Root 160 0 R/Size 193/Type/XRef/W[1 2 1]>>stream The reduction of releases from Glen Canyon Dam in water year 2022 (resulting in increased storage in Lake Powell) will not affect future operating determinations and will be accounted for as if this volume of water had been delivered to Lake Mead. Under the current most probable forecast, the total water year 2023 unregulated inflow to Lake Powell is projected to be 10.44 maf (109 percent of average). "These reservoirs are huge," Lund said. A 59% flow into Powell translates to about 3.8 million acre-feet. The nation's second-largest reservoir is under pressure from climate change and steady demand, and is now . The Water Desks mission isto increase the volume, depth and power of journalismconnected to Western water issues. Jian Wang of Utahs Center for Colorado River Studies says that means the projections may be too optimistic. If Glen Canyon Dam ceases to operate, we are going to have to replace that power somewhere else and it will have a bigger carbon footprint, said Bryan Hannegan, CEO of Holy Cross Energy, which buys Lake Powells hydropower to serve customers in Western Colorado. This is a decrease of 3.33 maf over the total storage at the beginning of water year 2022 when total system storage was 22.87 maf (39 percent of capacity). Encompassing all or parts of Arizona, Colorado, Idaho, Nevada, New Mexico, Texas, Utah and Wyoming. Last Reading: 3521.11 on Feb 27, 2023 Powell was last within 2" of this elevation on Feb 26, 2023 There are currently 1,734,731,016,499 gallons of water in Lake Powell! Lake Powell is at low for water year and down 9.26 feet from the high. That reference period is updated once a decade; it now begins in the 1990s. The most probable inflow scenario reflects a median hydrologic condition which statistically would be exceeded 50 percent of the time. Correction: This article has been corrected to indicate that Lake Powell began filling 59 years ago, not 60 years, as the original article stated. hVmO0+_'"Bi?H!R`Mkwj3#tq@x k8,Q\yDIU>H Consistent with Section 6.D.1 of the Interim Guidelines, Lake Powells operations in water year 2023 are governed by the Lower Elevation Balancing Tier (LEBT) with an initial projected water year release volume of 7.00 maf. Today is day 151 of 365 for the Water Year 2023. The Colorado River cuts through dry land that was once covered by Lake Powell on September 7, 2022, near Hite, Utah. Official Glen Canyon National Recreation Area Changing Lake Levels Info. The grim forecast comes as water officials race to bolster Lake Powell's water levels. Please contact the Operations Group via e-mail at ResourceMgr@usbr.gov for additional information. Lake Powells side branches had all retreated compared to the previous years extents. :pNB/gb2D0p6Ecb :qD_q7wE42TOOSW:Oa^(-]p7y|iZ.8uq:}1y3bJ]!G ) ytRdJp2 +[|}QpEU}V'k{yeKud"xl_-x lJ!UZ`,n!\3{dcb Detailed Map of Powell average basin temperatures and precipitation for the forecast period. . Its not a hypothetical situation anymore.. (Due to the angle of sunlight, this image may cause an optical illusion known as relief inversion.). These projections are critical for planning for an increasingly dry future in the Colorado River Basin, but a new paper from Utah State University says the model may still underestimate the risk. google_color_text = "000000"; This 2022 Plan is described above and available for review here: https://www.usbr.gov/dcp/droa.html. Since the beginning of water year 2000, total Colorado Basin storage has experienced year to year increases and decreases in response to wet and dry hydrology, ranging from a high of 94 percent of capacity at the beginning of 2000 to the now current level of 33 percent of capacity at the beginning of water year 2023. google_ad_client = "pub-0146338466817273"; inflow forecast for water year 2022 by approximately 2.2 million acre-feet from . As of September 20, 2021, the water elevation at Glen Canyon Dam was 3,546.93 feet, more than 153 feet below "full pool" (elevation 3,700 feet). For additional information, the news release can be found here: https://www.usbr.gov/newsroom/news-release/4294. google_color_bg = "FFFFFF"; The annual release volume from Lake Powell during water year 2023 will be 7.77 maf under the Lower Elevation Balancing Tier and will balance the contents between Powell and Mead with annual release volumes from Glen Canyon Dam between 7.00 maf and 9.50 maf as determined under Section 6.D.1 and 7.D of the Interim Guidelines as determined by the Department of the Interior as described above. Hourly releases during February 2023 will fluctuate from a low of approximately 5,797 cfs during the early morning hours to a high of 10,091 cfs during the afternoon and evening hours. LAKE POWELL, Utah Lake Powell water levels continue to drop, and a new report released by the Bureau of Reclamation projects the possibility America's . WEco is funded by multiple donors. Now, though, we know that its not firm, its not reliable, and its coming at a much higher cost.. Lake Powell was at 26% of capacity, 168 feet below its full elevation of 3,700 feet above sea level at . google_ad_height = 600; The bureau, in consultation with tribal nations and the seven Colorado River Basin states, decided to keep nearly 500,000 acre-feet of water in Lake Powell that had originally been planned to be released to the Lower Basin states of Nevada, Arizona and California this year. From there, a swing to the northeast delivers boats into Lake Powell's main artery. Water availability, appropriate timing of releases, and impacts on other resources are all being considered as the 2022 Plan is being drafted.. Printable Version Gas Prices on Lake Detailed Map of Powell 15 Day Weather Forecast google_color_link = "0000FF"; In water year 2021 unregulated inflow volume to Lake Powell was 3.50 maf (36 percent of average), the second driest year on record above 2002. Lake Mead was at elevation 1,064.30 ft. with storage of 8.753 maf or 34 percent of capacity. 0 She also sits on the Upper Colorado River Commission. Last July, to protect the 3,525 buffer zone, Reclamation ordered emergency water releases from three reservoirs in the Upper Colorado River Basin. Despite those releases, Powell dropped below 3,525 last month, hitting 3,523, another historic drought landmark. Few expected to ever see this drop in hydropower production, let alone consider what to do if Glen Canyon were to cease electricity production entirely. U.S. Department of the Interior Bureau of Reclamation. Climate change also plays a part. At the west end of Narrow Canyon, the Dirty Devil River joins the lake from the north. Lake Powell has fallen victim to excessive water use as a 20-year drought parches the region. Hydrologists recently updated the model that forecasts the level of Lake Powell. water-data.com LakePowell Water Database . Although developing snowpack in the area is "fairly good" and might stave off dead pool in Lake Powell for another year or so, according to Lund, the solution lies with people conserving water. As air warms over time, less precipitation makes it to the reservoirs due to evaporation. Becky Mitchell is director of the Colorado Water Conservation Board, the states lead water planning agency. The bureau also announced it would release an additional 500,000 acre-feet of water from Flaming Gorge reservoir in Wyoming to further raise the water level at Powell. Detailed Map of Powell The water level in Lake Powell was at a record low when rain and snow began to fall across the Colorado River Basin in October, soaking dry soils ahead of the winter season. google_color_text = "000000"; Newsweek reached out to the U.S. Geological Survey for comment. More by Chris Outcalt, Got a story tip? He also was an associate editor at 5280 and a reporter for the Vail Daily. Graphical view of Lake Powell water data. In the early 21st century, this modern marvel of engineering faced an ancient enemy: prolonged drought in the American Southwest. Winter Storm Warnings are in effect for elevations above 4000.Heavy accumulations of 10-20 are forecast above 6000, 3-8 to 4500 and several inches to valley floors. The system is appreciated for the water it supplies, but criticized for the environmental problems and cultural losses that have resulted from its creation. In addition to the February 2023 24-Month Study based on the Most Probable inflow scenario, and in accordance with the Drought Response Operational Agreement (DROA)), Reclamation has conducted model runs in February to determine a possible range of reservoir elevations. The Bureau of Reclamation's most recent projections show Lake Mead dropping to 1,033.4 feet in elevation by the end of 2023, about 14 feet lower than the reservoir's current level. But the region is battling a multidecade drought with rain harder to come by. Updated: 10:18 PM MDT April 26, 2022 DENVER Lake Powell, on the Utah-Arizona state line, is part of a river system that supplies water to 40 million people. This level is actually .02 feet . "As a result of this update, the median water year 2022 inflow forecast into Lake Powell decreased by 800,000 acre-feet," USBR stated in a press release distributed Thursday. //-->, Printable Version Upper Colorado Region Water Operations: Current Status: Lake Powell, Spring Snow Brings Moisture to Colorado Front Range, NASA Goddard Space google_ad_format = "160x600_as"; Water managers, who . Water Data for 20 days surrounding Feb 28, 2022. Click to share on Twitter (Opens in new window), Click to share on Facebook (Opens in new window), Click to share on Reddit (Opens in new window), Click to email a link to a friend (Opens in new window), Wind affected on the west and south facing aspects of the Gore Range seen on, April 7, 2022, near Vail. google_ad_height = 600; By 2002, the lake level had dropped far enough that the exposed canyon walls created a pale outline around the lake. Lake Powell is so low that it is nearing a dead pool, in which water levels aren't high enough to deliver water downstream. Its better than last year, but well just have to see what the next two to four weeks holds for precipitation.. 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